It’s a generally accepted fact that the Australia property market is ‘flat’ and that property buyers need to be stimulated in order to be motivated to buy real estate.
This article from Residex suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is about to provide (at least) some stimulus.
Property Buyers Need To Be Stimulated
Our national housing market is improving (see ‘Monthly Trend – Australia’) however without some form of stimulus we are likely to continue seeing housing values decrease across much of Australia.
Fortunately, it is likely that the stimulus will come in the form of an interest rate cut and I would not be surprised to see the RBA cut rates by 0.5% at its May Board Meeting. In any event, a 0.25% reduction looks all but certain.
There has been comment that the unemployment rate (5.2%) could affect the likelihood of a rate reduction given that it has not been increasing. However, there are some worrying trends in the employment data and I believe the RBA will not be blind to these issues.
What appears to be happening is that the unemployment rate may only be remaining steady as a consequence of people taking up part-time employment and this won’t be delivering quality levels of income. There was an increase of 15,800 people in full-time employment in March and around 28,200 people began part-time employment. In total, the ABS suggests that there are around 626,600 people unemployed. The ‘State Employment’ table presented below points to this issue.
In addition to the inherent weakness in the total full-time numbers, we should also recognise that the figures are developed from a sampling process. What constitutes a person as being unemployed is also important and it should be noted that anyone who has worked as little as a few hours in the last week is considered to be employed.
The remaining indicator, which for our money sealed the fate of the RBA’s rate adjustment, was the CPI rate. In the latest release (24 April, 2012), CPI came in at 0.1% for the March quarter, unchanged from the December 2011 quarter. It rose 1.6% through the year-ending March 2012, compared with a rise of 3.1% to the year-ending December 2011.
Clearly, CPI is now at the lower end of the RBA’s target range and, given its objective of achieving a 2-3%CPI outcome, a rate cut is looking certain.
[Read on...] to discover the impact a rate cut is likely to have on housing values.
Do property buyers need to be stimulated AND assuming the RBA cuts interest rates, what impact do you think it will have on the property market? Let us know your thoughts by leaving a comment.




